Former U.S. President Donald Trump in New York City, U.S. May 30, 2024 and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington, U.S., July 22, 2024 in a combination of file photos
Washington, October 10 –Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has erased Republican rival Donald Trump’s advantage in the vast middle of American society: suburban residents and middle-income households, an analysis of Reuters/Ipsos polling shows.
Since President Joe Biden ended his flagging reelection bid on July 21, Vice President Harris has pulled into the lead in both of these large demographic groups, reinvigorating Democrats’ prospects in the Nov. 5 election, though the race remains exceptionally close.
Suburbanites, who make up about half of the U.S. electorate and are as racially diverse as the nation at large, are a key prize. Biden beat Trump in suburban counties by about six percentage points in the 2020 presidential election.
Before Biden dropped out, Trump was leading him 43% to 40% among suburbanites in Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted in June and July, reflecting the Democrat’s struggle to energize supporters.
Harris began closing the gap when she launched her campaign in July and led Trump 47% to 41% among suburban voters in polling across September and October. That represents a nine-point swing in the Democrat’s favor, according to the analysis of six Reuters/Ipsos polls that included responses from over 6,000 registered voters.
During the same periods, Trump went from leading Biden 44% to 37% among voters in households that earn between $50,000 and $100,000 – roughly the middle third of the nation – to trail Harris 43% to 45%, also a nine-point swing away from Trump. The figures had margins of error of around 3 percentage points.
Trump carried this group 52%-47% in 2020, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of exit polls.
Reuters/Ipsos surveys have shown voters consider the economy the No. 1 issue ahead of the election and in a poll conducted in October, 46% of voters said Trump was the better candidate for the economy, 8 points more than Harris’ 38%.
The polls have also shown Trump as the more trusted candidate on immigration and crime. Trump told supporters in August he was the candidate that would keep suburbs safe and ensure that migrants coming across the border illegally are kept “away from the suburbs.”
Trump has blamed the Biden administration for inflation that has hurt middle class Americans. Harris, meanwhile, has put considerable focus in her speeches on pledges to increase the size of the middle class. She also is more often picked in polls as the better candidate for protecting democracy and taking a stand against political extremism.
“Her focus on affordability has been highly effective in narrowing Trump’s advantage on inflation and the economy,” said David Wasserman, a political analyst at the Cook Political Report.
Wasserman said Harris appeared to be performing well among relatively affluent suburbanites who could be growing more optimistic about the economy, while her gains among middle-income voters could be due to her campaign’s regular pledges to help middle-class households.
But he noted that voter turnout in Democratic-leaning urban areas and Republican-leaning rural towns could also be critical in deciding the election.
Trump has blamed the Biden administration for inflation that has hurt middle class Americans. Harris, meanwhile, has put considerable focus in her speeches on pledges to increase the size of the middle class. She also is more often picked in polls as the better candidate for protecting democracy and taking a stand against political extremism.
“Her focus on affordability has been highly effective in narrowing Trump’s advantage on inflation and the economy,” said David Wasserman, a political analyst at the Cook Political Report.
The latest of the six polls, conducted Oct. 4-7, showed Harris up a marginal 3 percentage points over Trump among registered voters overall, 46% to 43%.
Her modest edge in national polling is significant although the winner of the election will likely be determined by the results in seven battleground states – Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin and Georgia – where polls have also shown a tight race.
Winning the middle – whether nationally or in the election’s key states – won’t necessarily crown the victor. Democrat Hillary Clinton, who got nearly 3 million votes more than Trump nationwide in the 2016 election and beat him in suburban counties by about 1 percentage point, still lost the election when Trump flipped six states that had voted Democratic in 2012.
